CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2015-06-18T17:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2015-06-18T17:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/8710/-1
CME Note: Clear indication of CME in AIA 171 and 193: opening/rising field lines starting around 16:30Z, followed by dimmings, two-ribbon flare, outflows. The CME was fast and bright, and also had a 360-degree halo/asymmetric shock structure.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T15:40Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-06-21T08:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
:Issued: 2015 Jun 19 0830 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# An asymmetric full halo CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO data, from 17:24 UT (June 18) onwards. The event is associated to the long duration M3.0 flare from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371) peaking at 17:36UT with an associated dimming and EUV wave. The bulk of the mass is expelled in Western direction off the Sun-Earth line (with the source region located at longitude -45 degrees approximately at the time of the event) with a projected speed of around 600 km/s. Impact of this CME on Earth is expected late June 21 or early June 22. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# :Issued: 2015 Jun 19 1230 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 50619 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 19 Jun 2015, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 19 Jun 2015 until 21 Jun 2015) SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 19 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 008 PREDICTIONS FOR 20 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 007 PREDICTIONS FOR 21 Jun 2015 10CM FLUX: 150 / AP: 046 COMMENT: Solar flaring activity was moderate with a long duration M3.0 flare originating from Catania group 92 (NOAA 2371) peaking around 17:36UT. It was associated with a dimming and an EUV wave and a corresponding asymmetric halo in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph images. Several further C flares were recorded from Catania groups 92 (including a C8.1 flare peaking at 9:27UT) as well as 87 (NOAA 2371 and 2367 respectively). Catania group 92 has a complex beta-gamma-delta configuration while also Catania group 87 deserves continued attention. Flaring at M level is likely for the next days from those two sources. The 10 MeV proton flux remained above the event threshold for most of the afternoon of June 18. Since around midnight flux values are below the event threshold and further declining. The asymmetric full halo CME associated to the M3.0 flare is visible in SoHO/LASCO data, from 17:24 UT (June 18) onwards in the C2 field of view. The bulk of the mass is expelled in Eastern direction off the Sun-Earth line (with the source region located at longitude -45 degrees approximately at the time of the event) with a projected speed of around 1000km/s (Cactus software is underestimating the speed). Impact of this CME on Earth is currently expected before UT noon June 21. Another CME is visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 data from 8:25UT onwards (after a datagap). It is directed predominantly southward and associated with a filament eruption in the south-east quadrant. We await further data for assessment of possible Earth-directed CME component. Solar wind conditions are gradually further restoring to nominal. Solar wind speed decreased from around 420 km/s to around 370 km/s. total magnetic field was in the 4-5nT range with variable Bz. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3, local K Dourbes 0-3). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24-36 hours, with afterwards the likely impact of the June 18 17:24UT CME arriving around or before noon June 21 with possible associated geomagnetic storm conditions. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 053, BASED ON 06 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 18 Jun 2015 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : /// 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 151 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 012 AK WINGST : 010 ESTIMATED AP : 010 ESTIMATED ISN : 063, BASED ON 23 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 18 0033 0127 0155 ////// M1.2 85/2365 CTM/1VI/1 18 1630 1736 1825 N15E50 M3.0 1N 2200 92/2371 III/1IV/2 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # Fax : 32 (0) 2 373 0 224 # # Tel.: 32 (0) 2 373 0 491 # # # # For more information, see http://www.sidc.be. Please do not reply # # directly to this message, but send comments and suggestions to # # 'sidctech@oma.be'. If you are unable to use that address, use # # 'rvdlinden@spd.aas.org' instead. # # To unsubscribe, visit http://sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#Lead Time: 51.82 hour(s)
Difference: 7.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-06-19T11:51Z
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